segunda-feira, 5 de janeiro de 2009

The NY Times:Israel Strikes Before an Ally Departs


By Scott Shane
Published: January 4, 2009
For nine days, as European and United Nations officials have called urgently for a cease-fire in Gaza, the Bush administration has squarely blamed the rocket attacks of the Palestinian militant group Hamas for Israel’s assault, maintaining to the end its eight-year record of stalwart support for Israel.
Mr. Bush, in his weekly radio address on Saturday, said the United States did not want a “one-way cease-fire” that allowed Hamas to keep up its rocket fire, and Vice President Dick Cheney on Sunday echoed the point, declaring that only a “sustainable, durable” peace would be acceptable.
Many Middle East experts say Israel timed its move against Hamas, which began with airstrikes on Dec. 27, 24 days before Mr. Bush leaves office, with the expectation of such backing in Washington. Israeli officials could not be certain that President-elect Barack Obama, despite past statements of sympathy for Israel’s right of self-defense, would match the Bush administration’s unconditional endorsement.
“Obviously Bush, even by comparison with past U.S. presidents, has been very, very pro-Israel,” said Sami G. Hajjar, a longtime scholar of Middle East politics and a visiting professor at the National Defense University. “Despite Obama’s statements, and his advisers who are quite pro-Israel, the Israelis really didn’t know how he’d react. His first instinct is for diplomacy, not military action.”
Mr. Hajjar said that in addition to relying on the backing of Mr. Bush, Israeli officials may not have wanted to begin their relationship with the new president by forcing him to respond to their military action. On Dec. 19, just one month before Mr. Obama’s inauguration, Hamas declared an end to an Egyptian-mediated truce with Israel that had taken effect in June, and rocket attacks from Gaza have been increasing since then.
Mr. Obama has disappointed many commentators in the Muslim world by steadfastly declining to condemn the Gaza operation, and he maintained his silence over the weekend as Israel began a ground invasion. “President-elect Obama is closely monitoring global events, including the situation in Gaza, but there is one president at a time,” said Brooke Anderson, chief national security spokeswoman for Mr. Obama, repeating what has become a mantra for the incoming administration.

Mr. Obama’s stance has been interpreted by Hamas spokesmen and others as tacit assent both to Israel’s actions and to the Bush administration’s policy. Aides to the president-elect say he has spoken with President Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice about the situation in Gaza but they do not expect him to carve out a distinct position before his inauguration.
In the meantime, Mr. Bush and Mr. Cheney, while expressing concern about the deaths and suffering of Palestinian civilians, have offered unqualified understanding for Israel’s assault.
In an interview Sunday with Bob Schieffer of the CBS News program “Face the Nation,” Mr. Cheney said Israel “didn’t seek clearance or approval from us” before beginning a ground invasion on Saturday. But he said that in previous discussions, Israeli officials said they would respond forcefully to rocket attacks, “and if they did, they would be very aggressive in terms of trying to take down Hamas.”
Asked whether sending troops into Gaza was a mistake, the vice president replied that “it’s important to remember who the enemy is here,” adding, “You haven’t had a conflict between two U.N. charter-member states, you’ve got a U.N. member state being attacked by a terrorist organization.”
Leading Democrats, including Senators Harry Reid of Nevada and Dick Durbin of Illinois, both of whom appeared on programs on Sunday, have also expressed support for Israel. “I think this terrorist organization, Hamas, has got to be put away,” Mr. Reid said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”
The fighting between Israeli troops and Hamas comes as a dismal coda to the Bush administration’s second-term push for Middle East peace, which has occupied much of Ms. Rice’s tenure as secretary of state. For Mr. Obama, who flew to Washington on Sunday to join his family, it adds a new crisis to an agenda already packed with challenges, beginning with the economy.
During his presidential campaign, Mr. Obama promised a new, positive approach to the Muslim world, including “America Houses” offering English lessons in Muslim countries and an “America’s Voice Corps” to spread the truth about American values. Mr. Obama’s aides have said he will unveil the new approach with a speech in a Muslim capital during his first 100 days in office. But Israel’s invasion of Gaza, and Mr. Obama’s studied silence about it, threatens to short-circuit his plans for an American image makeover.
Critics abroad and at home have noted that Mr. Obama’s “one president at a time” policy did not prevent the president-elect from speaking out against the terrorist attacks in Mumbai, India, in November, when he condemned what he called the “hateful ideology” of militant Islam.
In the absence of any new statement, many have recalled Mr. Obama’s remarks last July in the Israeli town of Sderot, where he implicitly recognized Israel’s right to respond militarily.
“If somebody was sending rockets into my house, where my two daughters sleep at night, I’m going to do everything in my power to stop that,” he told reporters. The Israeli defense minister, Ehud Barak, quoted Mr. Obama’s statement in justifying the attack on Hamas during a news briefing on Dec. 29.
Martha Joynt Kumar, a political scientist at Towson University who studies presidential transitions, said Mr. Obama’s predicament exemplified the treacherous weeks between election and inauguration, and the way inspiring visions inevitably give way before unexpected events.
“On a campaign, you control what you talk about and when you talk about it,” Ms. Kumar said. “When you begin governing, you have to respond to what happens in the world.”

Financial Times: Israel presses on with ground offensive


By Tobias Buck in Jerusalem
Published: January 5 2009 11:01 Last updated: January 5 2009 13:39


Israeli forces pressed on with their ground operation in the Gaza Strip on Monday, clashing with Hamas fighters and once again destroying a mosque which the army said had been used as a weapons depot.
The Israeli assault on Gaza, which began with a massive bombardment by warplanes nine days ago, has so far claimed the lives of at least 512 Palestinians and wounded at least 2,000.
Gaza-based medical sources and international agencies say there have been many civilian casualties among the victims, including three children who were reportedly struck by an Israeli tank shell on Sunday. At least 53 Israeli soldiers have been wounded since the ground operation began late on Saturday including four who have sustained serious injury. One Israeli soldier was killed, the fifth Israeli to die since the outbreak of hostilities more than a week ago.
Diplomatic efforts to end the fighting are expected to enter a new phase on Monday, with the arrival in Israel of Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president. Mr Sarkozy has been at the forefront of international leaders calling for a ceasefire, but the US on Sunday blocked a United Nations Security Council call for an immediate ceasefire in the Middle East.

Hamas and other militant groups in the Gaza Strip have kept up a steady barrage of rocket attacks on nearby Israeli towns throughout the Israeli offensive, with at least ten rockets fired from the strip on Monday morning.

Ehud Barak, the Israeli defence minister, said on Monday that ”Hamas has so far sustained a very heavy blow from us, but we have yet to achieve our objective and therefore the operation continues”.
Mahmoud Zahar, a top Hamas leader in the Gaza Strip, on Monday vowed that the Islamists were heading to “victory” against Israel. At the same time, he lashed out at the UN and the West, accusing the international community of doing nothing to prevent the devastating Israeli offensive. He called for an ”end to the aggression, the withdrawal of [Israeli] forces and the lifting of the blockade” that Israel imposed on Gaza after Hamas seized control of the territory in June 2007.
A delegation of senior Hamas officials was due in Egypt for talks on how to end the war in the tiny territory that is sandwiched between Israel and Egypt.
Mr Sarkozy was due to confer with Egypt’s president, Hosni Mubarak, before meeting Mahmoud Abbas, president of the Palestinian Authority which rules the West Bank but not Gaza, and Ehud Olmert, the Israeli prime minister.
Israel has so far rejected mounting international pressure for an immediate ceasefire, amid rising concern over the fate of civilians in the Gaza Strip. The territory is home to 1.5m Palestinians, who have nowhere to flee as both Israel and Egypt have shut their borders with the strip.
The fate of the inhabitants of Gaza City and the northern towns of the strip is especially uncertain, after Israeli troops moved to split the territory in two and surrounded the northern part of the Gaza Strip with tanks and troops.
The Israeli government says the
offensive is aimed at taking control of key areas of the Gaza Strip, which are used by Hamas and other groups to fire rockets on Israel. Officials insist that the government will only consider a ceasefire if it achieves the same goals currently pursued by the military: an end to rocket fire from the Gaza Strip and a guarantee that Hamas will not rearm itself after the guns fall silent.
Israel on Monday rebuffed European proposals for international observers in the Gaza Strip after any ceasefire, pushing instead for teams that will help search out and seal off tunnels that could allow Hamas to rearm.
Tzipi Livni, the foreign Minister who is a leading candidate to become Israel’s next prime minister in a February 10 election, said she saw no reason for an observation and monitoring force, one of several proposals made by European powers in their bid for a truce to end Israel’s 10-day-old military offensive in Gaza.

Financial Times:Israel is on firmer ground against Hamas


By Lawrence Freedman
Published: January 4 2009 18:48 Last updated: January 4 2009 18:48
The current operation in Gaza is a direct consequence of the 2006 war in southern Lebanon. The obvious similarities have led many people to foresee a comparable outcome, with Israel condemned for causing great human suffering while smarting from a military humiliation.
As in 2006, Israel is responding to a cross-border provocation and is fighting in territories it once occupied but then abandoned in the hope of a ­quieter life. As in 2006, the operation began with massive air strikes, widely decried as being disproportionate in their effects, to be followed, with evident misgivings, by a land offensive.
The result in 2006 was that the Israelis hurt Hizbollah but failed to achieve their over-ambitious and unrealistic political goals. Most important, they appeared to have no answer to rockets fired into Israeli territory by mobile militia groups and fared poorly when dealing with these militias in ground combat.
Hamas, long a follower of Hizbollah when it comes to strategy, took comfort from this experience and believed that it too could mount a regular rocket barrage against Israel with impunity, knowing that the Israel Defence Forces were wary about getting bogged down in Gaza as they had been in southern Lebanon. For the same reason, Israel knows that if it fails again, it will have severely reduced any deterrent against future rocket attacks.
As the range of these rockets is progressively extended, so will be the existential threat to Israel as more population centres become vulnerable. So in addition to the immediate objectives, this war is about restoring deterrence – and especially the credibility of the IDF after their unimpressive performance in 2006.
The lessons learnt from that year can be seen in every aspect of the current campaign. Instead of a rushed and improvised military response without political preparation, the Israeli government warned Hamas of the risks of a new rocket offensive before it responded. It has not set itself unrealistic objectives, talking more of degrading than of eliminating Hamas’s military infrastructure and of reducing the frequency and accuracy of rocket attacks rather than stopping them.
The IDF’s public relations operation has been more effective, getting over Hamas’s responsibility for the current round of fighting and at least addressing the adverse international reaction to the substantial civilian casualties.
Militarily its intelligence has been more accurate and its moves have been better planned than in 2006, when the IDF often moved into death traps before making tactical retreats. Other than the high-density urban areas, which Israel seems thus far to be avoiding, Gaza is also a less daunting operating environment: small, flat and isolated. Splitting the strip in two, thereby reducing the ability of the main concentrations of fighters in the north to get further supplies from the south, gives the IDF a position it can hold if it gets stuck in Gaza for a long time.
This time Hamas, which lacks the political and military sophistication of Hizbollah, has made the big mistakes. It clearly started the current round of fighting without thinking how an Israeli government, a few weeks away from
a general election, was likely to respond. This error was then aggravated by making bombastic claims about the terrible fate awaiting Israeli forces.
In the public relations war, Hamas has largely relied on others to make its case, although this often means belittling the significance of the rocket attacks that represent its main claim to be leading resistance against Israel.
Politically it has put itself into a position where a ceasefire will be seen as a defeat, because this will require accepting that it must stop firing rockets.
The calls for a ceasefire are bound to become more insistent. Assuming proper monitoring mechanisms are on offer, Israel should respond positively, putting the onus on Hamas. Without a ceasefire, the risks for Israel will grow. If the rockets keep on coming, even in reduced numbers, questions will be raised in Israel and elsewhere about what has really been achieved, especially as the human cost among the Palestinians becomes even more severe. Although Hamas has taken a battering, the longer the IDF stays in Gaza the more it may find ways of striking back. Arab governments, though furious with Hamas, will come under pressure to reflect the anger on the streets. Although Hizbollah has so far offered only rhetorical support, Israel is clearly anxious that it might be tempted to join in.
The value of any claimed Israeli victory after a ceasefire will be challenged if the political differences that make such clashes so regular and bloody are left as wide as ever. The conventional assumption that this latest round will simply harden Palestinian attitudes and weaken the moderates may be right. But it is as likely that a combination of war-weariness and a weakened Hamas may open new opportunities.
If these are to be seized, Israel will also have to ease its grip on Palestinian life and territory so that its claims about a desire for peace become more credible. Israel has shown it can learn from its past military mistakes; the next question is whether it can learn from its past political mistakes.
The writer is professor of war studies at King’s College London and the author of ‘A Choice of Enemies: America Confronts the Middle East’

sexta-feira, 2 de janeiro de 2009

Jabor:Estou cheio de disposição..



Boa noite!Hoje fui ao hospital,pois tive um pequeno problema de intoxicação alimentar.Foi bem chato,é claro,ficar lá deitado,tentando não sentir os efeitos do envenenamento...No fim das contas,deu tudo certo.
Estou muito bem...
Ah,querido leitor,esse carinho que recebo de você me faz sentir renovado,cheio de disposição..até o teclado do meu computador superaquece...

Mundo:El 50º aniversario de la Revolución Cubana

Fernando Ravsberg
El 50º aniversario de la Revolución Cubana se conmemoró este jueves con un modesto acto público en el parque Carlos Manuel de Céspedes de Santiago de Cuba, donde asistieron sólo 3.000 personas en representación de los diferentes sectores sociales.
En una tribuna improvisada frente al antiguo ayuntamiento de la ciudad, niños, jóvenes y combatientes de la clandestinidad leyeron pequeños discursos revolucionarios condimentados con canciones y grupos de danza.
El cierre del acto estuvo a cargo del presidente, Raúl Castro, que en un discurso de 35 minutos -muy breve para lo que se acostumbra en Cuba- hizo un repaso histórico de este medio siglo y planteó advertencias para las nuevas generaciones de dirigentes.
Fidel Castro el gran ausente de la celebración. Muchos cubanos creían que reaparecería públicamente en este acto, esperaban verlo en el mismo balcón donde hace 50 años anunció el triunfo de la revolución.
La conmemoración de este medio siglo de revolución tuvo un carácter mucho más austero de lo que se podía esperar, ni actos masivos ni largos discursos.
BBC

The NY Times:Markets Surge on the First Trading Day of the New Year

By Jack Healy and Vikas Bajaj
Wall Street began the new year with a surge on Friday, closing above 9,000 for the first time since early November and offering some optimism about the year as a whole.
At the close, the Dow Jones industrial average was 258.30 points, or 2.9 percent, higher, at 9,034.69, and the broader Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index was at a two-month high, rising 28.55 points, or 3.1 percent, to 931.80. The technology heavy Nasdaq was up 3.5 percent, to 1,632.21. The last time that the Dow closed above 9,000 was Nov. 5, the day after Barack Obama was elected president.
“You’re going to have to call this a trading rally that’s part of the larger bear market complex,” said William Rhodes, chief investment strategist of Rhodes Analytics. “At least it’s a good way to start out.”
The surge followed jumps on Tuesday and Wednesday of more than 384 points combined, which put an optimistic cap to a year in which the Dow plunged 4,488.43 points, its most punishing loss since 1931.
On Friday, investors seemed to shrug off a disappointing economic report on manufacturing. The Institute for Supply Management, a trade group of purchasing executives, said its manufacturing index was 32.4 in December, down from 36.2 in November. A number below 50 indicates a contraction.
“Manufacturing activity continued to decline at a rapid rate during the month of December,” said Norbert J. Ore, chairman of the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. The index was at the lowest reading since June 1980, when it was 30.3 percent.
“This report indicates that the U.S. economy was on even weaker footing than commonly believed as 2008 came to a close,” said Joshua Shapiro, chief United States economist at MFR, a research group.
Still, Friday’s surge led many to think optimistically. Among Wall Street’s many proverbs, traders say one stands above the others: “As goes January, so goes the year.”
Though it has been trotted out at the start of virtually every year since it was first coined in the 1970s, the saying has a special resonance given the brutal, 38 percent drop in the stock market in 2008. Its appeal is probably all the more powerful now because investors remember that last year’s rout was presaged by a 6.1 percent drop in the Standard & Poor’s 500 last January.
“Most of that is nonsense,” Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist for Wells Capital Management, said about Wall Street aphorisms . “The only one that I might throw in a different category is the January deal.”
In fact, in 60 of the last 80 years, the performance of the S.&P. 500 index has accurately predicted whether stocks would end higher or lower for the year, according to calculations by Howard Silverblatt, an index analyst for S.& P.
One variation of the proverb has it that the first five days of trading are the best predictor of the year to come. Others look at the last five days of trading in December and the first five days of trading in January.
Academics who have confirmed the existence of the so-called January barometer effect say they have no good explanation. Investment specialists like Mr. Paulsen and Mr. Silverblatt offer several explanations: investors often make annual contributions to individual retirement accounts at the start of the year and mutual fund managers sell poorly performing stocks in December to “pretty up” their year-end statements and reinvest the money early in the new year.
Shares on Friday shares moved higher in a broad rally, led by energy and media, as well as the automobile sector. Shares of both Ford and General Motors rose, still riding investor optimism about the bailout of the automobile sector and news earlier this week that GMAC, the lending arm of G.M., was easing its lending restrictions somewhat.
Ford was up 5.2 percent, to $2.41 and G.M. was up 14.3 percent, to $3.66.
Shares of Exxon Mobil rose 2.2 percent, to $81.84 while Chevron rose 3.4 percent, to $76.52.
Friday’s big move came amid light trading. Volume should return to more normal levels on Monday, the first full week of the year. Next week, investors will need to absorb a number of economic reports, including year-end auto sales, retail sales and the latest unemployment report.
World stock markets also rose, though trading volumes remained light.
In London, the FTSE 100 closed up 2.8 percent, while the DAX in Frankfurt rose 3.3 percent and the CAC-40 in Paris 4 percent.
Earlier, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index led what Asian markets were open higher, vaulting 4.6 percent . Many of Asia’s markets, including Japan’s Nikkei, were closed.
In the oil markets, crude moved up $1.74, to $46.34. The increase, also in light trading, came a day after the OPEC cartel had pledged to begin cut its production by 2.2 million barrels a day as a way to shore up prices.

Mundo:Cerimônia de posse de Obama vai custar 75 milhões de dólares

A organização da cerimônia de posse do presidente eleito Barack Obama, marcada para o dia 20 de janeiro, vai custar 75 milhões de dólares em medidas de segurança e meios de transporte, anunciou a cidade de Washington, que pediu uma ajuda financeira ao Congresso.
"Sediar um evento desta magnitude constitui a maior das honras. Porém, as questões de segurança que temos que resolver para preparar este evento inédito e histórico apresentam um desafio nunca encontrado na região", escreveu o prefeito de Washington, Adrian Fenty, em carta obtida nesta sexta-feira pela AFP e enviada a uma delegação do Congresso americano.
Fenty solicitou uma ajuda para financiar "custos que podem ser superiores a 75 milhões de dólares" na cidade de Washington e nos estados vizinhos de Maryland e Virginia.
Para este evento "de significação histórica", a cidade de Washington terá que desembolsar 47 milhões de dólares, sendo 28 milhões para as forças de polícia e cinco milhões para os transportes.
Os estados de Maryland e Virginia devem contribuir respectivamente com 12 e 16 milhões de dólares.Pelo menos dois milhões de pessoas são esperadas na capital federal dos Estados Unidos para a posse e o desfile de 20 de janeiro, assim como "centenas, talvez milhares, de representantes de delegações governamentais e dignitários estrangeiros".
Cerca de 300.000 pessoas devem transitar pelos dois aeroportos de Washington entre os dias 16 e 19 de janeiro. Em Baltimore (Maryland), onde Obama fará uma escala de trem antes de chegar a Washington, as autoridades esperam 150.000 pessoas.
France Press